Tristan H. co*ckcroft
Aug 7, 2024, 01:26 PM ET
One clear benefit of the passing of baseball's annual trade deadline is that rosters tend to become more solidified. The most significant moves we have yet to see will generally be dictated by injuries, pitching-related workload shut-downs, or prospects summoned for cups of coffee. All of this makes planning ahead (as far as matchups go) a much simpler task. You're not going to see any major names changing teams, drastically shuffling the deck as far as a team's quality.
With that in mind, now is a perfect time to evaluate where teams stand on the schedule front. There is just under 30% of the season remaining. That's a sizable enough chunk where fantasy managers still have time to make up any standings deficit, but also still small enough that there is disparity in the relative strength of each team's remaining schedule.
Remember, ESPN's standard league trading deadline arrives at the end of next week -- specifically on Friday, Aug. 16, at noon ET. Knowing which players will face particularly easy or difficult schedules down the stretch can provide you an advantage in your trade talks.
To identify these teams and players, I've used the Forecaster's projections engine to weigh all 30 teams' remaining matchups, evaluating each of their hitting and pitching sides, while also accounting for home/road games, park factors and the skill level of the opponent in terms of hitting and pitching. Let's take a look at the most pivotal takeaways!
Pitching's most favorable schedules
Atlanta Braves (13% more favorable than the league's average remaining schedule): They have six games remaining against the Colorado Rockies, four against the San Francisco Giants and three against the Miami Marlins, and while three of those Rockies games will take place at Coors Field, bear in mind that the 2024 Rockies are only the eighth-best team in terms of runs per game at home (4.89). The toughest part of the Braves' remaining schedule is the seven games against the rival Philadelphia Phillies, but in their defense, the Braves have surrendered only 21 runs total to the Phillies over their six prior meetings this year.
Trade targets: Max Fried and Spencer Schwellenbach, who might face an innings cap but nevertheless has had back-to-back quality starts with double-digit K's.
New York Yankees (7% more favorable): The Yankees face a lot of lighter-hitting competition down the stretch, with three-game series against each of the Chicago White Sox, Rockies, Detroit Tigers, Oakland Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates and Seattle Mariners over the season's final two months. That's good news for a pitching staff that has managed a 5.06 ERA (fifth-worst in baseball) since getting ace Gerrit Cole back on June 19. The Yankees are facing innings-cap questions with Luis Gil, but they could be bolstered by the return of Clarke Schmidt from injury soon.
Trade targets: Cole and Carlos Rodon.
Other favorable pitching schedules the rest of the way: Los Angeles Angels (7% more favorable), Milwaukee Brewers (6%). Minnesota Twins (5%).
Pitching's least favorable schedules
Giants (8% less favorable than league average): The Giants' pitching staff has been the center of excitement in recent weeks, with the healthy return of Robbie Ray and the team's decision not to trade Blake Snell (and his subsequent no-hitter). However, those good vibes might cool as the team faces a tough remaining schedule as well as an upward climb back into the NL wild-card race. The Giants have six more games against both the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, as well as three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles and St. Louis Cardinals. Most notably, the Giants' easiest stretch of schedule arrives over the next 3 1/2 weeks, while their September schedule is among the league's most brutal.
Trade-away candidates: Snell, who does tend to play to his matchups (a 3.64 career ERA against winning teams, but a 2.80 against sub-.500), and closer Camilo Doval.
Kansas City Royals (7% less favorable): For a team in the lighter-hitting AL Central, the Royals have an unusually challenging two months ahead of them. That's in large part due to their playing 31 of 47 games outside of the division, including four against the Houston Astros, three apiece against the Braves, Yankees and Phillies, and two against the Cardinals. The Royals have squeezed quite a lot of innings out of their three best starters, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Brady Singer -- pitchers who also have little experience pitching competitive games in the heat of a playoff race.
Trade-away candidates: Lugo and Michael Wacha.
Other unfavorable pitching schedules the rest of the way: White Sox (13% less favorable), Athletics (7%), Mariners (6%).
Hitting's most favorable schedules
Braves (14% more favorable than league average): That upcoming Coors Field series this weekend is a boost, but they also have five more games against the Washington Nationals, another three back home against the Rockies and three apiece against the Angels, Marlins and Toronto Blue Jays. That's important to know, considering the Braves have averaged just 3.86 runs per game (fourth-worst in baseball) since Ronald Acuna Jr.'s season-ending injury, though they did bolster their lineup recently with the acquisition of Jorge Soler.
Trade targets: Matt Olson, whose 56 home runs and .901 OPS in his career in September/October underscore his history of strong finishes, and Austin Riley.
Yankees (10% more favorable): They play at one of the game's more HR-friendly environments, and their road schedule the rest of the way is chock full of especially hitter-friendly matchups (a three-game series at Seattle in mid-September representing their one toughie). Additionally, the Yankees have one of the softest August schedules on the hitting side, including series against the White Sox, Tigers, Rockies and Guardians, making this a prime time to load up on their hitters.
Trade target: Anthony Volpe, who if he can extend his .359/.469/.656 performance since the All-Star break, might soon recapture the team's leadoff role.
Other favorable hitting schedules the rest of the way: Angels (9% more favorable), Twins (6%), New York Mets (6%).
Hitting's least favorable schedules
Royals (8% less favorable than league average): They have an especially rough go of it between Aug. 23 and Sept. 4, when they'll play 14 games over 13 days without any off days, including series against the Phillies, Guardians (two series for seven total games) and Astros. The Royals have been a better-than-expected offensive team, led by budding superstar Bobby Witt Jr., but fantasy managers might find it tougher to extract production from their supporting cast down the stretch.
Trade-away candidates: Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino.
Padres (6%): They've been one of the more under-the-radar great offensive teams -- and the Forecaster's projections back up their rating as being among the league's best. They've averaged a sixth-best 5.60 runs per game since the All-Star break. Yes, the Padres still have a series at Coors Field remaining (Aug. 16-18) and series against the Tigers and White Sox in September, but that final month will also see them play six games against the Giants, three apiece against the Astros and Dodgers and another three at Tampa Bay's pitchers' heaven, Tropicana Field.
Trade-away candidate: Jurickson Profar, who is in the midst of a career year but seems likely to cool off facing this schedule.
Other unfavorable hitting schedules the rest of the way: White Sox (12% less favorable), Athletics (9%), Giants (7%)
